DBK: Multiple crises are currently causing tensions around the world. What influence does Trump’s behavior have on these regions?
Jogy Wolfmeyer: Europe is currently very focused on long-term peace, while the USA is retreating into its own shell, which will of course have serious consequences for other continents. Europe, as a continent with a large population, is affected in the short term until countries have adjusted to a new world order. We have a fragile peace in Israel, the consequences of which will now lead to a realignment in the Middle East. Ukraine as a direct threat to Europe plays a much bigger role for us, as our community of values is threatened here.
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DBK: You warned that Egypt and Jordan could quickly lose patience with Israel. Now the Arab countries have met to discuss Gaza? Jogy Wolfmeyer: It was only a matter of time before this happened, because Benjamin Netanyahu is acting like the ruler of the world and has lost touch with reality. Resistance against Netanyahu’s government is now forming not only in Israel but also outside Israel. In the long run, Netanyahu will no longer be able to maintain his power and we will soon see a turning point here. Egypt and Jordan are the biggest influence in the region and could turn the tide quite quickly. If Trump was speculating on a Nobel Peace Prize here, it will fulfill his dreams neither here nor in Ukraine.
DBK: The Republicans are demanding Zelenskyy’s resignation. Would this resignation be a chance for peace?
Jogy Wolfmeyer: A resignation of Zelenskyy would only result in Putin being able to place one of his subordinates in the president’s position and is therefore not desirable for Europe. It would also be a genuflection to the now Russian-infiltrated Republicans in Washington. Europe must now show strength, because the USA will not be able to assert itself alone. We just need patience and confidence that the Americans will also recognize that Trump and Vance are betraying their own country right now. Ukraine needs stable financing and the united support of European countries.
DBK: What are the predictions for the future of Europe and the USA?
Jogy Wolfmeyer: Europe will probably rise to become a world power, while America’s influence in the world will decline sharply. The trade war initiated by the Republicans will also have a negative impact on the USA. We will see how the USA will gamble away with Trump. The USA will lose influence due to the new positioning in the Middle East and the Europeans can use the growing influence of the Arab League to their advantage.
We are already seeing a deepening of relations between Canada and the EU, which is also likely to happen with South American states. The global order can change very quickly and those who don’t adapt quickly will be on the losing side in this war declared by the USA. Europe can realign itself very quickly and now has the chance to establish itself as a global player.
As the USA has become an unpredictable partner for all countries, many countries will turn to stable Europe and offer themselves as stable partners.
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DBK: How will the crisis regions develop? Jogy Wolfmeyer: Ukraine will probably not come out of the war economy so quickly, but that is less threatening as Putin is in quite a tight spot when it comes to his raw materials for war equipment. Russia was not without reason very quick to agree to a proposal from Trump, as resources are running out faster. The Russians have shown that they are already pretty much at the end and have only been waiting for a quick solution to get them out of the misery. The Gaza crisis will also drag on until Netanyahu either stands before the International Court of Justice, or the Arab community will solve the problem. This could soon also have consequences for Israel in that they will be completely isolated in the region and thus the Netanyahu government’s ability to act will be massively restricted. The USA will then also have little chance of letting this conflict continue if the Europeans do not provide assistance here, as revenge for the betrayal of Ukraine.
DBK: Will the USA recover from the crisis after Donald Trump?
Jogy Wolfmeyer: Europe will no longer enter into long-term agreements with America, even if Trump is no longer president. In addition, America has an enormous amount of catching up to do in many things, such as the regulation of agricultural production and the healthy use of pesticides. Here, the EU would also have the chance to quickly discontinue the use of pesticides from America, as foreseen. There are many actions that the EU can now set as guidelines for new negotiations with the USA. If Europe acts quickly, then the big loser will be Trump.